Two predictions:

1. This contest will not go to the convention. Your timing is probably right, but I'm thinking it might be as early as May, after Oregon.

2. Democratic voters will line up behind the candidate, whoever it is.

I, on the other hand, will not be voting for Clinton no matter what. While I don't like the way her campaign has conducted itself, I was willing to vote for her until this week. When she got into bed with Scaife to attack Obama on religion, that was the last straw. If she is the Democratic nominee (not likely) I will once again be voting for a write-in candidate, as I did in 2004.

I could see myself holding my nose to vote for her provided she gets the nomination honorably. The only way she can do that is if Obama drops out for some unexpected reason.

It would be a question of who is the greater evil: Hillary or McCain. Right now, it's McCain for me.

Maybe I would think differently if I didn't live in such a blue state that's sure to go Democratic no matter what, but I doubt it.

It's probably true there are at least half again as many Clinton supporters who would go to McCain, 3rd party, or stay home if she loses than Obama supporters, but the current raw numbers are highly inflated by the intense ongoing campaign. Most will certainly unite behind the nominee.

We can agree the number will grow the longer it takes to decide the nomination, and the more bitter and personal the fight becomes.

There are some party leaders who will try to get the undecided super delegates together by early June. They intimate this is a "party unity" move, but no one is fooled by that. The ONLY possible "unity" move in June would be to unite behind Obama, since he will be ahead in delegates won at that point. So, those pushing the idea are already pro-Obama, like Pelosi, even if they've stayed technically neutral.

The upside for super delegates of deciding early would be the longer time to unify and spend money on the fall campaign (can't really appoint state chairmen or hire staffs and consultants until the nominee is known). The downside is choosing the wrong one - either an eventual loser in November, or going against the party winner.

There are substantial benefits to being an uncommitted delegate at a very close convention, though. With results uncertain going into both party conventions in 1968, the uncommitted delegates for both were wined and dined and promised appointments, pork projects, etc. - and those are just the incentives we know about.

If the nomination remains undecided until Denver, an uncommitted delegate will be able to write his own ticket, or just sit back and let the bidding begin.

A lot of Dems are going to vote for McCain. Consrvative Dems that cannot stomach the liberalism of Obama and Hillary. MCCaon being firmly in the middle makes it easy for them.

You Dems should have let Mark Warner or Evan Bayh run...then it would be a different story.

Love the headline -- but what about the 19% of Obama's supporters? Aren't they "threatening" to vote for McCain too? lol...

If Clinton's nomination looked more certain than 5% I suspect you'd see 28% of Obama's supporters "threatening" to vote for McCain instead of just 19% - but the fact that Clinton is such a long shot at this point a lot of Obama supporters haven't even considered that question.

Still, "Clinton Supporters Threaten to Vote for McCain" has a nice, unifying, Kuymbaya ring to it. Ducking the question "Why and what can we do to change this" is an Obama trademark - the man doesn't change anything except his speeches.

And yes, I predict the Democrats will lose the election if Obama gets the nomination -- that's been my impression for about a month now.

And I think more and more Obamamites will recognizing that fact - and some may actually be honest enough to say so, I suspect. Many won't however - many will shrug it off as not likely.

My guess is the superdelegates will have a better feel for this than die-hard Obama supporters, and that's where the opinions matter most on this question.

And yes, I predict the Democrats will lose the election if Obama gets the nomination -- that's been my impression for about a month now.

If he does, it will be thanks to scum like you.

Lol! Yeah, I made Obama go to that church for twenty years, then call Geraldine Ferraro a racist.

It's Obama's nomination to lose, and I wouldn't be surprised if he actually loses it. Claiming Bill Clinton is engaging in "McCarthyism" for those innocuous remarks he made last week is another example of the unhinged moonbattery being engaged by the Obama campaign.

Claiming that Obama tithing at that church for twenty years was the moral equivalent of Bill Clinton shaking hands with Wright once at a prayer breakfast 15 years ago - priceless.

Those aren't the kind of moves that will beat McCain, and so far they haven't defeated Clinton either.

Obama destroying the chances for Florida and Michigan Democrats to have their say in the nominating process is yet another fine example of the kind of BS that is eroding Obama's support among Clinton Democrats. Obama is a BS artist who claimed he's for change - and then engages in exactly the kind of slime politics as everyone else -- he's just not good at it, and its embarrassing to watch him attempt to be tough -- especially as he allows himself to be pushed around by Fox News. Good grief.

Obama talked about change, but he's not even trying these days to deliver it. Just attack his fellow Democrats every time he screws up and loses a point in the poll - just as mantis wants to blame me for Obama's failure.

The two candidates are staying rather even in the polls - a virtual tie -- but where we're seeing the shift is in the "what happens if my candidate loses" choices, and Obama has hardened almost 30% of Clinton supporters against him. That's an amazing number, and it should rise in the coming weeks.

Obama is still the favorite to win the Democratic nomination, although not so much the favorite as his strongest supporters and some of the fawning media believe.

It's well premature to be analyzing why he lost when he hasn't lost yet, but if an outsider can help: take a breath of fresh air, people! If Obama loses, it will be because he lacked any significant experience, and was not properly vetted by those who first backed him (or anyone else). Unless you believe he's some magical entity who was going to transcend all the traditional qualifications and dues-paying, this had to be in the back of an Obama backer's mind the whole time.