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Did Obama "Win" Texas?

NPR's Ron Elving is reporting that the delegate breakdown from Texas' caucuses will favor Obama 37 to 30. That means the total delegate haul from Texas will be as follows:

Obama: 98
Clinton: 95

So, does this mean Obama is the real "winner" in Texas? Since this contest is only about delegates one would have to say yes (assuming NPR's report is correct).

But unfortunately for Barack it's too late to take back all the screaming headlines and breathless media reporting about Hillary's "big" wins in Texas and Ohio. Just imagine how different the media's narrative of the race would have been over the past week if we had known the final Texas results on Tuesday night. Instead of all the hype about Hillary's resurgence the discussion would have been how Obama successfully blunted her strongest assault in one of the two states that she herself had handpicked.

Ultimately, the idea that either one of the candidates "won" Texas or Ohio is itself a canard promoted by the media who dearly love to dramatically "declare" the winner during their television broadcasts on the night of the contests. In reality, no one really wins a state at all in the Democratic nominating process. This isn't the electoral college and it's not the winner-take-all system that the Republicans employ. The only thing either candidate truly won on Tuesday night was delegates. And at the end of the day this was the net result.

Clinton gains:
Ohio: +9
Rhode Island: +4

Obama gains:
Texas: +3
Vermont: +3

Which gives Hillary a grand total net gain of 7 delegates.

That's right: 7 delegates.

All of this hype and consternation and saturation coverage by the media for a net gain of 7 delegates.

And if Obama wins Wyoming and Mississippi as expected next week he could easily erase those 7 and come out with a net gain for the month of March. But don't expect the media to take too much notice of that. They have too great a vested interest in seeing the race continue as long as possible so they will continue to pump up Hillary's remote and ever-dwindling chances to win the nomination. I said weeks ago that Hillary needed blowout wins in Texas and Ohio to change the nature of the race and begin the process of climbing back to parity in the delegate race. She failed to do that, but the media is acting like she did so that in itself is a victory of sorts. Unfortunately for her, the delegate math still looks very tough.


Update: An ARG poll has Obama with a huge lead in Mississippi:

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 34%

Mississippi is hugely important for Hillary. I fully expect her to go all out and attempt to shrink Obama's margin.

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Comments (5)

You remember Bill Clinton s... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

You remember Bill Clinton said 10 days ago, she needed to win both Texas and Ohio TO STAY IN THE RACE...I 've been asking all week what did Clinton win in Texas? The majority of the delgates were GOING go to Obama..It is something out of Alice-in-Wonderland "sentence first, verdict afterwards". O'kay, she won the Thomas Dewey bragging rights, or rather non-bragging rights as it turns out.

You remember Bill Clinto... (Below threshold)

You remember Bill Clinton said 10 days ago, she needed to win both Texas and Ohio TO STAY IN THE RACE,

How soon they forget.

All they think they need is to have the media narrative going their way. Never mind that they will end up still down in elected delegates by about 100 at the end. Their goal is to destroy Obama in the media so that he is no longer considered a viable candidate and then they can work the superdelegates to overturn the will of the voters.

So essentially, it's a scorched earth policy that leads to civil war and fractures the Democratic Party but could possibly hand Hillary the nomination in the end.

In her mind it's probably worth it because she thinks McCain would be better than Obama anyway.


Larkin, I have a feeling Hi... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

Larkin, I have a feeling Hillary's unremitting 'go for Obama's jugular' style is going to backfire...Why? Because after next Tuesday there won't be another primary for six weeks...All her vicious attacks on a mixed raced black Democrat candidate may continue to raise her poll rating among her core base, the non black over 65 year olds and less educated, who feel life is 'nasty, short and brutish' but the more neutral, politically aware will move into Obama's camp who see how obsessive she seems not so much as winning fairly, but as you say destroying all her many conspiratorial forces including much of the Democratic Party that may get in her way. And in those six weeks the superdelegates many of whom are moving to Obama will only have their suspicions confirmed that Hillary is electoral cynanide and now even Democratic party cynanide when as you say, she would have destroy the party in order to be its very unpopular leader. It doesn't make any sense. After all, we are talking about the unity candiate for the Republicans.

You remember Bill Clinto... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

You remember Bill Clinton said 10 days ago, she needed to win both Texas and Ohio TO STAY IN THE RACE,

How soon they forget.

There must be Clinton campaign staffers "who have sore backs from moving those heavy goal posts so often."...I wish I could say I thought of that line.


Your math suggests the Hill... (Below threshold)
John S:

Your math suggests the Hillary gained only 7 delegates on Tuesday. Are you aware that Obama this week gained a swing of 8 delegates from the final California certification? Looks like Hillary is going backwards.




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