New Polling Data Suggests Texas Could be the End of Hillary's Road (Wizbang Politics)

There is monumentally bad news for Hillary in a just-released CNN poll about the Texas contest:

Clinton: 50%
Obama: 48%
Error: 4.5%

This is effectively a dead heat given the margin of error. And as I pointed out in this post Texas' strange rules and gerrymandered districts should provide Obama with an opportunity to grab more delegates in Texas than would be expected given his share of the vote. These factors make it even more imperative that Hillary score a victory in Texas by at least 20 points if she is to regain parity in the delegate race.

Failure to score a big, convincing win in Texas could make that state the end of the line for the Clinton campaign. As it stands right now, the math is extremely difficult for Hillary without a big boost from Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. Over the coming two weeks, we can expect to see the Obama campaign mounting a major effort in Ohio and Texas. He doesn't need to win these states; he just needs to prevent Hillary from grabbing the lion's share of delegates. If he does that, the contest will effectively be over.

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Comments (3)

Luckily for Obama per Texas... (Below threshold)

1. Posted by bryanD | February 19, 2008 12:49 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

bryanD:

Luckily for Obama per Texas, in recent speeches Hillary has reverted back to her Old Northwestern twang. (Writing-off the south?)

Unfortunately for her, Texans only allow Georgians and Carolinians to have alternative Twang. All others are highly suspect.

Could be the difference for Obama.

Plus, DFW, Houston, and East TX.

Posted on February 19, 2008 00:49

Pandering to the oil compan... (Below threshold)

2. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 19, 2008 8:37 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Steve Crickmore:

Pandering to the oil companies in Houston, doesn't seem to have helped Hillary. Here is what she said to the 'Houston Chronicle' Editorial Board last week..

she voted for legislation to expand oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico because she backs such projects that have local support and are environmentally sound. Obama voted against, she added.
"I think on that issue alone, I should be able to make a strong case to the energy community" for support, the New York senator said.

Here is a clip of her "I'm going to serve notice on the oil companies"...New Hampshire speech.

For the record, the next day the 'Houston Chronicle' ended up endorsing....

Posted on February 19, 2008 08:37

We ought to be praying, wri... (Below threshold)

3. Posted by Glenn Koons | February 19, 2008 3:10 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Glenn Koons:

We ought to be praying, writing that Texans, Ohions, even Hawaiians should be voting for Hil. After all, the Pubs could beat her. Enough of this dump Hillary by supporting Obama. They are both dangerous socialist pacifists and Obama is even more dangerous than the Beast.

Posted on February 19, 2008 15:10