A National Omnibus poll now has Obama in front nationally:
Obama: 43%
Clinton: 37%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 17%
Error: 3.4%
Of course, given all the undecided and margin of error it's effectively a dead heat.
In all-important California, Rasmussen also has Obama ahead:
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 44%
Undecided: 5%
I don't see margin of error, but again with the undecideds its a dead heat. In Missouri, the race is also a dead heat as you can see from the pollster.com averages. In fact, look at just about anyone of those statewide averages and you see the same thing: Obama rising fast to catch Clinton.
Ultimately, what do all of these polls us? Absolutely nothing because they are too close in almost all of the large states (with the exception of New York and Illinois) to accurately predict the outcome. Given the proportional allocation of delegates in the Democratic primaries it's pretty safe to say that both candidates will get a good chunk on Tuesday and the race will go on.
But from a trending standpoint the Clinton campaign has to be worried. Nothing particularly earth-shattering has happened in the last two weeks to change the nature of the race. It appears, however, that as Obama gains exposure to voters who may not have been paying too much attention his numbers continue to go up. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, doesn't have the opportunity to make a new first impression on voters because she is already very well known.
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Filed under:
2008 Presidential Race
Tags: Democratic presidential campaign, Obama surge
