« Could Santorum as VP be Rudy's answer? | Main | Hillary on defense on Blackwater connection »

Obama's hopes focused on Iowa

Barack Obama has raised almost $80 million for his presidential campaign, most of it for the primaries, so he must remain a force to be reckoned with despite his deficit in the national polls. As thousands of candidates trailing in opinion polls have pointed out, "The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day!" Given the controversial history of Hillary Rodham Clinton, and her tendency to often be found nearby scandals, the old saw rings particularly true here. The only problem with her march to an "Aura of Inevitability" is the cloud of potential vulnerability which follows her around (much like the Joe Btfsplk character in the old "Lil Abner" comic strip).

For the first time, though, Obama strategists reveal their specific strategy to combat Hillary and her commanding lead, and it all begins with Iowa. Nedra Pickler of the Associated Press reports:


The Obama strategy for Iowa, outlined by Hildebrand in an interview with The Associated Press and confirmed by other advisers, is three-pronged:

1. Keep Clinton's support down.

Obama has to be careful about how he makes the case against Clinton, since he's campaigning on the need for a new kind of politics of hope instead of rivals tearing each other down. He's been taking the indirect approach -- criticizing the actions of the Washington establishment and letting voters and the media make the connection to Clinton.

"People hold Barack to a different standard in politics because of his own rhetoric," Hildebrand said. "He can't turn to Hillary and say, `You can't get elected because you're too polarizing. ... It's got to be in his own voice. It's got to be measured. It's got to be appropriate. It's got to be factual."

2. Keep Edwards from surging ahead.

Obama's advisers insist they do not see Edwards as a threat for the nomination even if he wins Iowa because he doesn't have enough money to continue an aggressive campaign in the 24 other states that will follow within a month. But if Edwards emerges as the top competitor with Clinton after the Iowa results, it could squeeze Obama out.

That's why the campaign spent so much time trying to keep Edwards from getting the endorsement of the Service Employees International Union last month. Anything that gives Edwards a boost comes at a cost to Obama, and so far SEIU has withheld its endorsement.

3. Continue building Obama's support among both traditional and nontraditional voters.

Obama will have plenty of resources to air television ads across all the early voting states, plus he has a large field staff in those states working intensively to recruit supporters and keep them on board. Hildebrand said 1,900 new supporters signed up the week before the interview, more than half of whom had never caucused before.


Read the whole story at the above link. Obama certainly has the money to pull off this plan, but Iowa is "mission critical." The apparent weakness in the strategy lies with his reliance on new and younger voters, people who have never caucused before. The campaign believes "If they show up every Wednesday night to volunteer in your local office, do you think they aren't going to show up on election night?" The problem with that is the single best predictor of attendance at the Iowa caucuses is . . . that the voter has been there before.

Still, it's a viable strategy, and perhaps the only one with a real chance of success under the circumstances. You cannot "buy" Iowa with advertising, so spending large chunks of the war chest isn't going to work. Iowans are like New Hampshire voters in that they demand the "retail politics" approach and reject the impersonal media campaigns. A famous anecdote about New Hampshire has one Granite Stater asking another what she thinks about a particular Presidential candidate. "I'm not sure," the second one replies, "I've only met him three times."

The good news for Obama is the size and enthusiasm of the crowds he draws in the Hawkeye State, which take a back seat to no others'. Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire like nothing better than delivering a surprise which shakes up the race. They will have their chances again in about three months from now.

  • Currently 5/5
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Rating: 5/5 (1 votes cast)


Close

Email this entry to:


Your email address:


Message (optional):


AddThis Feed Button

Comments (2)

Buy a gallon of ethanol, st... (Below threshold)
kim:

Buy a gallon of ethanol, starve a dozen children.
=================================================

Buy a hybrid battery, hang ... (Below threshold)
kim:

Buy a hybrid battery, hang that alba prius around your neck.
========================




Advertisements






rightads.gif

beltwaybloggers.gif

insiderslogo.jpg

mba_blue.gif

Categories

Monthly Archives

Wizbang Politics Blogroll

Credits

Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Jim Addison, Bill Jempty

All original content copyright © 2007 by Wizbang®, LLC. All rights reserved. Wizbang® is a registered service mark.

DCMA Compliance Notice

Powered by Movable Type 3.35

Hosting by ServInt

Ratings on this site are powered by the Ajax Ratings Pro plugin for Movable Type.

Search on this site is powered by the FastSearch plugin for Movable Type.

Blogrolls on this site are powered by the MT-Blogroll.

Temporary site design is based on Cutline and Cutline for MT. Graphics by Apothegm Designs.

Site Meter