Linda Feldmann of The Christian Science Monitor has written a useful guide to the Ames Straw Poll tomorrow. Read the whole thing at the preceding link.
Obviously the size of Romney's win will be important. After Guiliani and McCain made the strategic decision to concede the straw poll to him, Romney found himself in an odd position. He had set himself up to win big against the top tier, but they ran away (Fred Thompson didn't "run," but "stayed away" instead), leaving him needing a big win but unlikely to get the boost he would have had he beaten the others' best efforts.
Turnout for Rudy, McCain, and Fred bears watching, too, since those who do come out for them will have paid their own way.
Second-tier candidates who don't show well here will probably be on the way out, so watch Huckabee, Brownback, and Tommy Thompson closely. Tancredo and Ron Paul are fringe missionaries, so expect them to stay in to the bitter end - as if anyone will notice. Paul does have the sort of fanatic following which could surprise everyone by showing up at Ames, not that it would make any real difference.
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2008 Presidential Race, Iowa, Primaries, Republican
Tags: Ames Straw Poll, Iowa, Republicans
