With Florida moving its primary up to January 29 in defiance of both parties, the state has suddenly become critical in the nomination race for both parties. A new poll from Datamar shows Rudy Giuliani holding his lead, but with slightly weakening support at 27%. The big surprise is Fred Thompson - the still-unannounced former Senator draws 22% for a solid second place (with a bullet!). Mitt Romney has also strongly improved his standing to a respectable 18% and a solid third place.

Most surprising is the apparent collapse of support for John McCain. After coming back from a weak 1st quarter, McCain had been running stronger for most of the spring. Now the controversy over the new McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, very unpopular with the Republican base, may begin to tell on his campaign. Conservatives were already upset with McCain over Campaign Finance Reform and the "Gang of 14" plot to prevent Bush's judicial nominees from getting a floor vote in the Senate.

Three strikes and you're out, Senator.

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UPDATE 10:55 p.m.: Patrick Hynes, National Blogflogger of the McCain campaign (and of Ankle Biting Pundit fame) responds thusly:

Datamar is not a reputable polling outfit, it is a telemarketing center in California and these
were robo-call interviews with an automated attendant. Secondly, the idea that immigration reform impacted this poll is not accurate. Comprehensive immigration reform is popular among Florida Republicans. What is more, the poll was conducted between May 14 and May 18. The immigration reform compromise was announced on May 17th. Finally, Strategic Vision has an actual poll that shows much more believable numbers:

The SV poll Patrick refers has Giuliani 32, McCain 20, Thompson 10, Gingrich 7, Romney 5. I suppose that IS more acceptable to McCain, but his RCP average is still only 16.3. Perhaps coincidentally, the poll the McCain camp favors happens to be the one showing him the highest - St. Petersburg Times had him at 15%, ARG at 18%.

As far as Datamar, they disclose their methods in the linked details. Reliability of telephone polls - which SV also conducts - is directly related to response rates (the % of contacts who agree to be polled) rather than the form of the question, and NONE of the polls disclose that. The only way to determine Datamar's accuracy is to see if other polls show results moving in their direction or not.

Note I only said the immigration bill "may begin tell on his campaign," not that it impacted the poll. It's called future tense.

I grant this poll showed some strong shifts in both parties, which warrants skepticism.

We're glad for the response from the McCain campaign and are happy to bring it to you. If any campaign disagrees with the wisdom dispensed herein about "your guy," feel free to have your spokesperson/blogmaster/whiny sycophant contact me at adjoran"at"gmail"dot"com.
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The Real Clear Politics average of recent Florida polls has Giuliani leading with 29.8%, followed by McCain at 16.3, Thompson with 13.5, and Romney's 12.0%.

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On the Democratic side, the sample was smaller but no less controversial, as it shows John Edwards taking the lead over Hillary Clinton by 26-24%, with Obama steady at 19%. Other recent polls have shown Hillary with 37-45% support in Florida, so we need confirmation of any trend.

The RCP average of recent polls shows Hillary leading with 37.0%, followed by Obama with 18.8 and Edwards at 18.0.

Poll details are HERE for the Republican side, and HERE for the Democrats.