The Evans-Novak report has some good news regarding the Steele race.
Maryland: The momentum in this race has all been going one way for weeks now. The problem is that for a Republican in Maryland, there is always such a long way to go. Not only has Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) run a near-flawless campaign, he has also benefited from several gaffes by his opponent, Rep. Ben Cardin (D) -- particularly one debate performance that can be described only as disastrous for Cardin.This is the one that I have always been extremely optimistic about, even when the polls were down. Steele has just run such an incredible campaign and Cardin is so hapless that everytime I have seen the two together Steele just looked better and better.Near the end, the two are tied in the polls. The question here is whether Steele will get the 12 percent of the black vote that those public polls suggest, or the 20-plus percent suggested by his internals.
The Braynard Group did a late poll for us showing Cardin leading, 48-38, and Steele attracting just 12 percent of the black vote. We had to consider this an outlier, particularly when Mason-Dixon, Survey USA, and the Baltimore Sun all showed a much closer race. However, the others may be missing something, and it is interesting how they share the 12 percent number in common.
The problem is that 12 percent would be consistent with a year in which Republicans did not win a single new black vote, and Steele has been collecting key endorsements from Democrats in the black community, and should do much better than the average Republican.
Steele may well outperform Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) on tomorrow's ballot, and we believe that both will win. Leaning Republican Takeover.
Several people emailed the text above to me. I apologize for no link.
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2006 Senate Race, Maryland
Comments (7)
The key to the Steele-Cardi... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Diane C. Russell | November 6, 2006 9:21 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The key to the Steele-Cardin race is likely to be Prince George's County where all state and county level offices are held by Democrats, the majority African-American, and the entire African-American majority on the county council has endorsed Steele. Many African-American community activists seem to be either publicly supporting or silently planning to vote for Steele.
Unfortunately, the Republican Party decided to concede the state and county races to the Democrats, fielded almost no candidates, and has not supported the few Republicans who are running.
As a result, there is no incentive for voters of both parties who are sick and tired of the Democrats' corruption, record murder rate, and lousy schools to turn out and protest the failures of the Maryland Democratic machine to deliver the kind of society that their rhetoric promises. If the election is very close, that could turn out to be a major mistake.
1. Posted by Diane C. Russell | November 6, 2006 9:21 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 6, 2006 21:21
2. Posted by vadkins | November 6, 2006 11:21 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I'm a Florida voter and blogger. I just realized that 3 Florida Supreme Court justices are on the state ballot for a Yes/No vote. All 3 of these justices ruled in favor of Gore in the election of 2000. I'm voting NO for each of these justices. I've posted here:
http://qtmonster.typepad.com/qt_monsters_place/2006/11/3_florida_supre.html
2. Posted by vadkins | November 6, 2006 11:21 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 6, 2006 23:21
3. Posted by LibraryLady | November 6, 2006 11:54 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Here's the link but it's way down in the article:
Evans Novak
3. Posted by LibraryLady | November 6, 2006 11:54 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 6, 2006 23:54
4. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 12:06 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Say, didn't one of our insightful, witty, and devilishly good-looking contributors call this for Steele only yesterday?
4. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 12:06 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 00:06
5. Posted by AWW | November 7, 2006 12:22 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
A fair amount of bloggers are keeping MD in the Dem camp, saying it is just to blue for Steele to win. Funny, they said that about Ehlrich in 2002 also. And with all of the support of the african-american community in MD its hard to see Steele not getting the win.
5. Posted by AWW | November 7, 2006 12:22 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 00:22
6. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 1:48 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
AWW ~ I agree. Just because it is a blue state doesn't mean Republicans don't win from time to time - and in the Senate, our time is certainly due. RINO Charles Mathias was the last GOP Senator from MD, and I think that was 20 years ago.
6. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 1:48 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 01:48
7. Posted by Jose | November 8, 2006 12:02 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
What is so hard about understanding that the traitor, my ex party, republicans ignored the fact that 76% of all Americans wanted better border security.
The Republicans turned their backs on 76% of law abiding citizens, turned their backs on the laws of this land, and more importantly, turned their backs on the constitution and the voters.
Did the Repulicans really think that they were going to hold out their seats going against 76% of the voting public?? Stupid is as stupid does.
Those same voters who voted them in to office, expected them to listen to their voters, but NO they wouldn't listen to what the voters had to say.
Remember Republicans, Bush on down:
"For the People, By the people".
Ha Ha, republicans, you lose.
Now lets see, like you all wanted to see, how far we are going to be dragged down having democrats in charged.
We are all protest voters and very happy to see our ex party running with their tales between their tales.
What excuse now Bush?
7. Posted by Jose | November 8, 2006 12:02 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 8, 2006 12:02