A new poll out today by the Philadelphia Daily News reports that the 8th Congressional District race is leaning towards Republican incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick. He leads his Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy 47% to 38%.

Thanks to the folks at the Philadelphia Daily News, I was given the full poll which has not been released at the Keystone Poll website. In the US Senate race, Democrat Bob Casey leads incumbent Republican US Senator Rick Santorum, 47-percent to 40-percent, and in the Governor's race, Democratic Governor Ed Rendell leads Republican Lynn Swann, 66-percent to 25-percent.

If the Gubernatorial results are true, one has to really wonder why Lynn Swann continues to spend so much time in the Southeast (he spent of all today in Philadelphia). Honestly, Pennsylvanians in Bucks County who think this state is on the right track need to take a peek at parts of Philadelphia outside of Center City. Renaissance. Right. That said, I view this race as more a referendum on Rendell than a reflection of any unpopularity by Swann, who continues to generate rather positive reception on the campaign trail.

It is possible that there will be open races for State Treasurer and Auditor General in 2008. Lynn Swann should certainly consider running for one of them. Having put in a generally strong performance in the debates, and with his positive name recognition, (a Rasmussen poll showed him roughly equal popularity to Casey), a victory in 2008 might set him up for victory in 2010.

However, the Senate results are more interesting. The undecideds, when asking to indicate how they lean, go to Santorum by a slight margin. In 2004, President Bush lost Bucks County 51% to 48%, losing the state by the same margin. In 2000, then-Governor Bush lost Bucks County 50% to 46%, again mirroring the statewide margin. If the district is the bellweather it seems to be, then, it might indicate that the Strategic Vision poll, not the Mason-Dixon poll, is correct.