Even though I am a New York voter, and despite the overwhelming evidence that Santorum has little chance to win, I just contributed to his capaign for the third time. It is the least I can do to support a valiant politician who refuses to give up the fight.

Santorum should not give up. The polling data from the independents is suspect. I like to look at things from ideology as opposed to party ID. I don't have any knowledge of the ideological makeup of PA's independents but I suspect they lean conservative. The SV poll was incouraging because it showed movement in the right direction for Santorum. I would keep hammering Casey on his "safe" campaign and I agree with you that he needs to point out the local good that Santorum has done. In the end it will all depend on turnout and the independent vote. I can't see that Santorum does not capture at least 50% of the independent vote on Election Day.

I'm not from PA but I find it hard to believe PA will elect as a Senator a person who has gotten trounced in the debates, ridiculed for his lack of knowledge, and has generally run an information-less campaign. If Santorum was at scandal or there was a huge anti-GOP vave (there isn't despite the MSM efforts) or the economy was bad there would be a reason. But there isn't.

PA is a socially moderate state overall. It's that simple. The average PA voter (note average--obviously there are plenty of conservatives but also plenty of liberals) is probably to the left of Casey socially. With conservative Dems having no reason to vote for santorum, no wonder he's getting crushed. He gets killed among Dems, killed among indies, and probably loses a chunk of moderate republican support as well. A moderate republican can vote for Casey and get someone who will support a ban on abortion and oppose gay marriage, or they can support santorum who holds both of those positions but embarrasses the state by saying that women shouldn't work, etc.

Btw AWW, I agree that the media is making it seem like there are more seats in play than there are, but are you actually suggesting this isn't going to be a Dem year? Unfortunately for the gop, they're really at their high-water mark. Maybe in a perfect year they could be flat Senate and lose fewer than 5 house seats, but this is far from a perfect year.

And if you REALLY want to get depressed...go look at the Senate races in 2008. The gop better PRAY Hillary is nominated, that way there'll be a bad effect on downstate Dems in Senate races like MN, VA, CO, OR, etc, because if we get a moderate like Bayh, especially if it's against a nutcase (i.e. anyone in the gop field right now except for rudy and mccain), the Dems could be at 53+ seats in 1/2009. Then we can get President Bayh, Richardson, or Vilsack to nominate Senator Schumer to the SCOTUS...oh it's gonna be great...

jeremy - I believe the GOP will lose a few senate and house seats but retain the majority in both. Bad for the current year but good from historical mid-term election results. The Dem "wave" is down to a trickle and if present trends continue it will back a backflow.

If Santorom is so out of sync with PA voters how come he has been elected a bunch of times?

Bayh will never get the Dem nomination. Even if he ever did he is another little accomplished bland senator that would fall apart in the general.

AWW--I don't believe the Dems will pick up as many as some simply because of the advantages of incumbency and redistricting. But I think the Dems will pick up about 18 seats, just enough to have a majority. It's not about a wave, but going through the individual races...just off the top of my head...foley's seat in FL, delay's in TX, kolbe's in AZ, weldon and sherwood in PA, hostetler in IN, beauprez in CO...I mean that's off the top of my head and are races that the gop has literally publicly admitted they'll lose. Throw in about 20 tossup/lean dems like nussle's IA seat, ney's in OH, k-harris' in FL, etc, and the Dems only need about half of those for the majority.

The Senate is trickier. Unfortunately, I don't believe the Dems can pull out VA or TN, and MO is a long-shot. I do think we'll pick up the other 4, with 2 of our own potentially vulnerable in MD and NJ. Realistically, I think we'll lose one and end up +3--still good enough block and true loonies from being put on the bench, and that's all that's important for now.

But as I said earlier, check out '08--the Dems are in great shape in the Senate there.

As for Bayh, he was a governor of IN before being a Senator--perfect, a moderate with executive experience in a red state who also has the necessary defense credentials. He or Vilsack are going to lead us to victory.

"Schumer to the SCOTUS"
-Jemermy's dreaming again. :)

There's nothing Santorum can do at this point, voters of PA are going waste a perfectly good senator. One can hold out hope but that's all that's left in that PA race. Very disappointing.

KH--admittedly, that is a dream. I think he's well-qualified, but in addition, short of Hillary in the WH, which I don't want, I can't imagine anything that would drive rush nuts more. I'd call in sick to work the next day after the confirmation just to sit and listen to rush bitch and moan for 3 hours.

lol,I believe you. :)