Via Sixers, Kos warns Democrats not to start celebrating yet.
by kosTue Oct 10, 2006 at 11:41:35 AM PDT
I'm getting a little nervous with people thinking we have any race this fall in the bag. While things look great for us right now, the election isn't right now. And if Republicans can do anything, it's close the deal. And quite frankly, we're not a sure thing anywhere.
We've got to pick up six seats for a majority, seven if we want to avoid a potential Lieberman blackmail situation (if he wins his race). We have to hold all of our own endangered seats (looking solid in MN, okay in MD, and iffy in NJ). Then, in the Republican-held competitive races left -- MO, MT, OH, PA, RI, TN, and VA -- all but one feature incumbents, always the hardest races to win. Incumbents rarely, rarely lose.
We're leading in the polls in Ohio, but DeWine (R) had $3 million more cash on hand than Democrat Sherrod Brown, with the RNC and NRSC already dumping what could end up being $5-15 million more into the state. They consider this a "firewall" state, and will absolutely drown out what Democrats can throw into the fray.
Same case in Missouri, where Talent (R) has more than $4 million more than Democrat Claire McCaskill. The NRC and NRSC will drown out the DSCC's efforts as well. We'll get swamped with money, and this is a race that is essentially tied and will go down to the wire in a state that has been trending Red in recent election cycles.
Montana seems great on paper, but Burns (R) has about $1.5 million more than Democrat Jon Tester in a state that George Bush carried 59-39.
In Pennsylvania, the polls have shown the race tightening. Meanwhile Santorum (R) has over $4 million more in the bank than Democrat Bob Casey.
In Rhode Island, the Chafee (R) name is well-known and liked. Chafee is in trouble because of the anti-GOP wave, not because people don't like Chafee. And he has already bamboozled several progressive groups to endorse him over Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, like the Sierra Club, Defenders of Wildlife, League of Conservation Voters, and NARAL. So the myopic idiots at those organizations are doing their very best to keep the Senate in hostile Republican control.
In Tennessee, the recent spate of positive poll results for Democrat Harold Ford are a godsend, but we can't assume they'll hold in conservative Tennessee. And it's been well-documented that candidates of color always perform more poorly than polls would indicate. Tennessee is also one of the three GOP firewall states, which means they'll dump millions into the state to try and rescue the terrible Bob Corker from the ineptitudes of his own campaign. In fact, Tennessee reminds me quite a bit of Oklahoma in 2004, where Democrat Brad Carson held a narrow lead heading into the final month, before a massive GOP and 527 media blitz dragged the nearly insane Tom Coburn across the finish line.
And in Virginia ... heck, we're still trailing in Virginia.
So those of you counting those chickens need to stop. All of you celebrating the imminent GOP collapse need to take a deep breath. We've got a long ways to go, and nothing in this cycle is in the bag. Nothing.
So no slacking. No premature celebrating. No heightened expectations.
There's a reason I'm pessimistic about our chances this year. It's because no has voted yet and nothing in this biz is ever guaranteed.
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Comments (9)
Judging by the record of hi... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | October 12, 2006 3:50 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Judging by the record of his Nutroots-endorsed candidates, none of which has ever won a general election, Kos' pessimism is well justified.
It is fun, though, to watch him try and herd the moonbats to keep them "working" right up until the election. "Work" doesn't exactly suit the far left's temperment, unless vandalism is involved.
;-)
1. Posted by Jim Addison | October 12, 2006 3:50 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 12, 2006 15:50
2. Posted by Pat | October 12, 2006 4:08 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Maybe we should worry about the fact he has said something positive about our chances....
2. Posted by Pat | October 12, 2006 4:08 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 12, 2006 16:08
3. Posted by eddiebear | October 12, 2006 4:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
TN is closing, McCaskill has been exposed in MO as a clown and a cheat, OH is closer than we all thought and Allen is still ahead in VA.
If the Senate holds, even at 51R, that will block any silliness from a Speaker Pelosi.
I understand the desire of the Kosfather to give a "keep it going" speech to his charges. But, if he is having to cheer up his minions, what does that tell you?
3. Posted by eddiebear | October 12, 2006 4:17 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 12, 2006 16:17
4. Posted by eddiebear | October 12, 2006 5:27 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I just saw the latest batch from Charlie Cook's Constituent Dynamics. He has St. Patty Wetterling up 5 in her MN race?!? And these polls were taken at the same time frame as the others that showed the opposite.
Since Cook is a darling of the DC Cocktail Party Circuit, and has continued to push the meme of inevitability, is he just trying to shape a race here?
4. Posted by eddiebear | October 12, 2006 5:27 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 12, 2006 17:27
5. Posted by Tom Q. | October 12, 2006 6:02 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Why is anyone worried about a "speaker pelosi" or any Dem Congress? We don't WANT it obviously, and it will hurt our chances at some of our goals, but the bottom line is that having the WH means they can't do ANYTHING! Obviously things might change in '08, but for at least 2 years, no worries.
5. Posted by Tom Q. | October 12, 2006 6:02 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 12, 2006 18:02
6. Posted by Jim Addison | October 12, 2006 7:40 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I wouldn't say a Democratic House couldn't "do ANYTHING!" While they couldn't get legislation passed, there are TONS of things they could and would do to damage our country, such as:
• Raising taxes by allowing tax cuts to expire
• Using subpoena powers to tie up the Executive branch with multiple "investigations"
• Refusing to fund our national security needs, the war in Iraq, or anything else they don't approve of
• Using the above as blackmail to get wasteful spending to reward their parasitic supporters
• Being generally and insufferably annoying
6. Posted by Jim Addison | October 12, 2006 7:40 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 12, 2006 19:40
7. Posted by The Unbeliever | October 13, 2006 10:27 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
More Kos funnies:
And he has already bamboozled several progressive groups to endorse him over Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, like the Sierra Club, Defenders of Wildlife, League of Conservation Voters, and NARAL. So the myopic idiots at those organizations are doing their very best to keep the Senate in hostile Republican control.
Myopic? These are special interest groups whose sole interest is in electing candidates who agree with their own views. How is it "myopic" to endorse the guy you think is closest to their views? Granted all those organizations are progressive movements (and it really does say something about Chafee that he got those particular endorsements), why does Kos think that should wed them to the Democratic party if they can find a better candidate elsewhere?
Oh well, Kos is either an idiot or a hypocrite. Dog bites man, etc.
7. Posted by The Unbeliever | October 13, 2006 10:27 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 13, 2006 10:27
8. Posted by eddiebear | October 13, 2006 11:02 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
AFter reading what KOS wrote, I'm not surprised that fellow traveller Charlie Cook released some bizzare polls yesterday. I get the feeling Cook was just trying to buck up his charges.
8. Posted by eddiebear | October 13, 2006 11:02 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 13, 2006 11:02
9. Posted by T. G. Scott | October 13, 2006 11:41 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Put all my Repub candidate signs in the front yard last night while we were grilling dinner. While I think our TN race may be tight, it's by no means a done deal for the Dems yet. I think the Repubs might pull it off this year for no other reason than there has been a high mortality rate among elderly (formerly Democrat voting) citizens over this past year. There are more people currently in my demographic (age 30-45) who are more apt to vote conservatively and in line with their personal values. This seems to be an area in which many of us are united, so we'll see...
9. Posted by T. G. Scott | October 13, 2006 11:41 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 13, 2006 11:41