Political scientists see a strong correlation between economic improvement - specifically, falling gas prices - and President Bush's approval ratings, which they believe could have a direct influence on the outcome of the battle to control the House, James Pethokoukis writes in U.S.News & World Report:
An improving economy-or voters' perception of an improving economy-might just keep the GOP in control of the House of Representatives, the branch that many analysts see as most likely to change hands. At least that's the conclusion of University of Texas-Dallas political science professors Patrick Brandt and Thomas Brunell. The duo just finished testing a forecasting model that attempts to predict the outcome of the battle for the House. Their three main factors are the presidential approval rating, inflation rate (think of it as a proxy for gas prices), and unemployment rate. Using a model-generated prediction of a 43 percent presidential approval rating on Election Day, the Brandt-Brunell formula predicts the GOP will retain 220 seats, a loss of 12 seats but still enough to keep control. And every 2 additional Bush approval points would mean a loss of one seat fewer.
Brandt and Brunell's forecast parallels what has become known among Internet economics junkies as The Chart. It tracks Bush's approval ratings against the price of gasoline. Higher prices mean Bush's approval goes down and vice versa. "The correlation between the two is unbelievable," says Andy Laperriere, policy analyst at ISI Group in Washington, D.C. "I almost can't believe it. I mean, I don't believe it. That can't be all there is to it."
Bold emphasis added. Read the entire article at the link above.
Locally, the lowest gas prices have just hit $2/gallon.
Hat tip to NRO's Sixers for pointing to this story.
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Commentary, Congressional Races, General politics
Comments (2)
Yea, but this analysis does... (Below threshold)1. Posted by kewgardens | October 3, 2006 4:21 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Yea, but this analysis does not take into account "give away" seats -- seats that the GOP would win under normal circumstances but, because of freak circumstances, they have effectively surrendered. There are at least three "give away" seats this cycle: Open Delay, Open Kolbe and Open Foley.
Add these three to the total and you get a loss of 15 seats -- with a Bush approval of 43%. But the RCP Average has Bush at about 41%. That would entail the loss of at least one more seat.
So, at this point, this formula would suggest a loss of 16 House seats (to 216) and a loss of House control.
1. Posted by kewgardens | October 3, 2006 4:21 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 3, 2006 16:21
2. Posted by Jim Addison | October 3, 2006 7:39 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
These gentlemen have constructed a formula, the initial parts of which (Bush approval inverse to gas price movement) have evidently proven reliable. You are certainly entitled to add any additional factors to their projections you wish - but that makes it incorrect to refer to your adjusted results as related to their formula, because they are not.
2. Posted by Jim Addison | October 3, 2006 7:39 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 3, 2006 19:39