Great analysis. I was wondering what had caused Santorum's momentum to stall like it did. I see this race as a mirror image of the overall fall election, with Casey like the Democrats in general not giving the voters a reason to vote for them, but rather, relying on discontent with Republicans to sweep them into office. Although right now its advantage Casey, the fact that he's been such an empty suit trying to lie low and avoiding debates is the very reason that I think he and many of his fellow travelers haven't closed the sale yet. Playing not to lose cost Republicans in 1998, and it could do the same for Democrats in 2006.

Ken

I agree that the negative Ad casting vague, lame aspersions on Casey donors (no names, no time frame, no context) was a Santorum stumble, but the Santorum Ad that really did more damage than good was a positive one that featured his many children addressing the camera and saying cheery things about their dad.
I live in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), and this ad stirred up the local memory of a big, unpleasant brouhaha over the Santorum children's expensive, PA taxpayer funded, cyber-schooling. The family lives in Virginia, which only makes sense for a Senator who has a young family and works in Washington, but Santorum and his wife (who have homeschooled traditionally in the past) are seen to have taken advantage of a Pennsylvania school law that had the Senator's "home" PA school district pay for 5 of his children's schooling at a $55,000 annual cost. And really, though Santorum owns a modest home in his old PA neighborhood, and apparently stays there when in the area and of course pays property (school) taxes on the house, his children do not live there.
Also, "using" the youngesters in an Ad has simply caused people to complain that Santorum is dragging his children into politics when he otherwise demands that his children be left out of political discussions. Many letters to the editor around here are beating this horse.
I am a Santorum supporter, and think he has done a great job for Pennsylvania, but this family residency issue has really hurt him.

Suzette,

As someone who doesn't live there, I have to rely on people on the ground to get a feel for what's going on. That is a fascinating point you make. I'd been hearing some really good things about Santorum's ad man, John Brabender. But if these were his idea, he's definitely hit a couple of sour notes. I have seen the "fighting" ad, and it looked to be well done. Do you think that one is getting a better review?

Ken

Time is getting short. I think Santorum needs to rough Casey up. The guy is in hiding, ducking debates which would expose the fact he's "not ready for prime time."

The big question mark on Casey coming in was his two previous public offices. Apparently he showed up for work less than half the time, and couldn't get along with the staff at either position. I would combine both questions into one ad:

Start with the empty chair at the debates. Voiceover: "Bob Casey isn't showing up to debate Rick Santorum. Some people say he is afraid. But Casey hardly ever showed up for work when he was Pennsylvania's Treasurer, either." Flash to the treasurer's office door, then cut to a picture of an empty desk with an empty chair behind it. "If Bob Casey won't even show up to campaign for the Senate, why should we assume he would show up for work if he gets the job?"

Then perhaps a crudely animated commercial showing Santorum hunting Casey to debate, with Casey hiding everywhere, his head poking out from odd places and him quickly running away when Rick gets close.

At this point in the race, we need to rattle Casey's cage, hard.

this ad might work

Screenshots of Bin Laden, Chavez, et al
"There are many challenges America faces, foreign"

screenshots of headlines about domestic issues
"and domestic"

Empty chair

"IT Bob Casey can't take on Rick Santorum, how can he take on the tough issues America now faces"