This is the tip off of flawed analysis --

"and a diminished financial advantage by the national Republican committees over their Democratic counterparts, just to name a few..."

Based on the results I have been reading in the press the national committees funding is in a dead heat with a slight edge by the Dims. But the local funding by the Rep candidates is outpacing their Democratic couterparts by about $5:4.

Now if Cook doesn't have that right how am I expected to believe he got the rest of it right? 20 seats is the highest I have heared from any source.

And 2-6 Senate seat gain for the Democrats.

Talk about really taking a risk!

My question would be how many people (including us conservatives) do NOT think the Democrats will gain at least 2 seats in the Senate?

Hey, I predict either the Mets, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres or Dodgers will win the NL title and play for the World Series. (Sorry DJ - no Astros this year, despite the heroics of the weekend - but hey, that is where my 'expert' analysis comes into play)

This is the same guy who predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. Sorry, Charlie.

Can you believe that Cook gets paid for that analysis? Here's what stands out for me:

On an actual seat count, not factoring in...turnout advantage for either party, the fight for the House is right about at the tipping point of 15 seats.

That's like saying that all the extra votes that the GOP's GOTV operation don't count because we say they don't count. That's nonsense.

Besides that, Cook isn't taking into account the uproar happening up in Cape Cod, which might get Bill Delahunt fired this November because of his ties to Hugo Chavez. A friend of mine living in the area says that talk radio in the area was absolutely abuzz about the Delahunt-Chavez connection both Thursday & Friday.

That isn't factoring in John Murtha's impending defeat. Keep your eyes peeled the next 2 weeks for signs that things are breaking for Republican candidates.

I seriously think all Cook is doing here is trying to shore up and buck up the MSM in the face of good polling for the GOP since late August. The cBS poll last week seems now to be the outlier, and the Mediacrats need something to hold on to.

For the longest time, the Medicrats keep crowing about the "generic ballot" and Bush Job Approval. Now that both are going the GOP's way, they are now saying that doesn't matter. Almost like Zogby's claim in 2002 and 2004 about the "cell phone only" voters.

For the record, here are the fundraising figures for the relevant party committees through September 15:

2005 - 2006 Totals

Democratic Party $352,389,634

Republican Party $472,565,229

Main Party Committees

Democratic National Cmte $95,543,172

Republican National Cmte $176,283,310

House Party Committees

Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte $80,806,205

National Republican Congressional Cmte $115,468,183

Senate Party Committees

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte $77,193,131
National Republican Senatorial Cmte $65,934,939

Totals based on data released by the FEC on Friday, September 15, 2006.

Source at Open Secretshttp://www.opensecrets.org/parties/index.asp.

What's $120 million or so between friends, anyway?

;-)

What's $120 million or so between friends, anyway?

Speaker Pelosi or Minority Leader Hoyer.

People who write books like this are also in the class that claims Hitler was their father. Say or do anything for the almighty dollar. The problem is the left wing are like a kindergarden class, anything the teacher says has to be correct. Going to be a lot of disappointed people in Nov.

I think eddiebear sums it up nicely. This is precisely the kind of fear and panic that would we can expect to see creep into the MSM and Dem cheerleaders like Charlie Cook as evidence mounts that their hoped for Democrat takeoever of Congress is becoming more and more unlikely. Last week's CBS poll showing a 15-point generic ballot advantage for the Dems was another example. Look for more of this to be trotted out there as election day approaches in an effort to manufacture Democrat momentum, while ignoring evidence to the contrary. In the meantime, post this stuff if you need any extra motivation to donate money, make phone calls, knock on doors and anything else necessary to win on election day. And keep it handy, if as I suspect, right before the election, Cook and his fellow travelers change their tune, based on some major, last minute shift in voter sentiment that they claim nobody saw coming, which now suggests that the GOP will hold the house and senate.

Ken

I think it is most telling that the spread is that big only 6 weeks out from the election. The election is definetly trending Democrat, but it's hard to wager a guess by how much. I think 15 is a bit of a reach. Personally, i would put the over/under at about 12 house seats and 4-5 Senate seats. Is it possible for 15+ seats to change hands? Yes, but i just don't see guys like Heath Shuler (NC) , Joe Donnelly and Brad Ellsworth(IN), and Ken Lucas (KY) all being able to force out Republican incumbants in Red states. There would have to be a clean sweep for the Dems to take back Congress and i just don't see it.

With the continual flow of bad news the GOP keeps getting, the latest being this intelligence report from his own administration stating that the Iraq War is one of the causes of additional terrorism, it could be that painful. It doesn't take a lot of independent votes to swing a race. If the news stays this bad, you might even see races like Arizona with Carter getting competetive.

Chris, you better catch up on your reading. The report has been released, and that is NOT what it says.

Nice try for about 24 hours, though.

President G Bush is the most incompetent, (stupid) and embarrasing President in US history, The upcoming mid terms will confirm this. At last the conservatives are waking up to this fact.
How many more great YOUNG soldiers will be sent to the slaughter-house in Iraq by this draught dodging and fumbling fool?
America is starting to wake up,at Last....

Ray, Australia