This Jay Cost article, linked in the comments of Ace's post, considers the history, noting the House hasn't switched party control in the last century unless the Senate also switched.

We will soon find out whether our "respected, non-partisan analysts" like Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg are actually mighty oracles who can predict election results months in advance, or merely channelers of the conventional wisdom.

Jim:

The Three Stooges you referenced were woefully wrong in 2002 and 2004. They keep hoping they'll eventually get one right.

There does seem to be a strange consistency there. They all keep predicting Democratic gains, figuring it will come true one of these days. If it does, I wouldn't want to be trying to sleep in the hotel where they hold their orgy of self-congratulation, because it is certain to be loud and lengthy.

For the record, I've found CQ Politics to be a better source of real information than any of those. Their current breakdown of House races is HERE.

If I counted CQ's categories correctly, then if the GOP wins those seats in the safe, favored and lean category they end up with 220, which means they retain the House. That's assuming they win none of the races with no clear favorite or Texas-22, the one race leaning Democrat, and the Democrats win everything else. I also recall hearing Carl Cameron report on Fox today that five of the top tier house candidates Rahm "The Slug" Emmanuel recruited to run have lost in the primaries. It's hard to imagine that improves their chances of taking over the House.

Ken

That's right Ken, and I think Election Projection has the numbers about the same.

I've downgraded Arizona-8 to Leans Democrat, which puts my own projection at -7 seats in the House. If Graf does pull that off, it will be an upset at this point.

CQ has Ohio-18 (the Bob Ney seat) as toss-up, but I think Joy Padgett will win it fairly easily (55% or more).

I also think Texas-22 (the DeLay seat) is winnable through turnout and education on the write-in, provided the RNC and RCCC come through with the $3 million they said they would spend.