Former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler needs to win back the conservative "Reagan Democrats" in order to have any chance of ousting incumbent Republican Rep. Charles Taylor in North Carolina's 11th district. So . . . he campaigns with former Sen. John Edwards? Yeah, that'll bring those Reaganites running, all right . . . Jeffrey L. Austin of CQ Politics reports:
Shuler -- a native of North Carolina's mountainous west who was a football star at the University of Tennessee before a less-successful pro career -- is staging a serious bid to unseat eight-term Republican Rep. Charles H. Taylor. Now a real estate executive, Shuler also is one of a very few strong Democratic takeover candidates in the South, a one-time party stronghold that has shifted strongly to the Republicans since the 1960s.
With just more than nine weeks to go before the Nov. 7 election, Taylor appears to be maintaining his traditional edge in the Republican-leaning 11th. The district gave 57 percent of its votes to President Bush in 2004, and it has given Taylor, a conservative Republican, at least 55 percent of the vote in all but his first congressional race in 1990.Taylor's biggest strength this year is the same one he has touted in fending off vigorous Democratic competition in his recent elections: a senior position on the House Appropriations Committee that helps him steer funds back home.
Read the full story at the link above. CQP rates the race as "Leans Republican," while Cook's Political Report has it as a "toss-up."
Will Shuler turn out to be just another UT pretty face, like Glenn Reynolds? Campaigning with the "Breck Girl" when he needs to woo back disaffected Democrats doesn't seem very bright, since it was people like Edwards who "disaffected" those former Dems in the first place.
Our last report on this race is HERE.
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Congressional Races, North Carolina
Comments (5)
In a district that went for... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Dominick | September 1, 2006 8:39 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
In a district that went for Bush so strongly, Schuler will have to rely on looking moderate coupled with a Democrat "wave."
But success will likely be short. I highly doubt that the Democrats, even if they get a majority will have very much cushion. They will have driven out vritually every "moderate" Republican, and so the "moderates" will be Democrats. Pelosi will likely not brook many defections, so Schuler would wind up going into 2008 with a lot of liberal votes that don't mesh with the district.
Add to that the fact that the Democrat presidential nominee in 2008 is likely to fare no better (and may fare worse) in the district, and you get a natural edge to any Republican that comes in. Hell, we could probably run Taylor again if he loses.
This is one of those seats where I think the Democrats are being short-sighted by trying to knock out an incumbant in a district where their guy will likely be an underdog two years from now even as an incumbant.
1. Posted by Dominick | September 1, 2006 8:39 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 1, 2006 20:39
2. Posted by Right Democrat | September 1, 2006 9:50 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Heath Shuler is the kind of Democrat that we need in Washington. Shuler understands the values of his district. He is pro-gun rights, pro-life and pro-traditional family. I hope that Shuler wins and can help rebuild the mainstream wing of the Democratic Party.
2. Posted by Right Democrat | September 1, 2006 9:50 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 1, 2006 21:50
3. Posted by Jim Addison | September 2, 2006 12:39 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Well, I sure hope he has a plan to "rebuild the mainstream wing of the Democratic Party."
I mean, something beyond putting in a call to Jimmy Carter to send "Habitat for Humanity" around. They've been so actively driving out any remnants of sanity for decades now, I fear it is too late.
3. Posted by Jim Addison | September 2, 2006 12:39 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 2, 2006 00:39
4. Posted by Dominick | September 2, 2006 3:41 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It's a nice thought that Schuler could be a moderate. But with a slim majority (if one at all) how many times will he have his arm twisted to go along with the Democrat leadership - which will always be more liberal than his district.
Either he and the other "moderates" will be "whipped" by Nancy Pelosi to follow the line - in which case those in Republican districts will lose in 2008 for being too liberal; or they won't - in which case the Democrat majority will get little done and all of their incumbants will be attacked for doing nothing with their power. In a Republican-leaning district in a presidential year, neither scenario makes for an easy defense of this seat, even by a moderate Democrat.
I would say that, unless Schuler really trounces Taylor, that Taylor will be back in 2008 even if he loses this year.
4. Posted by Dominick | September 2, 2006 3:41 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 2, 2006 03:41
5. Posted by Jim Addison | September 2, 2006 4:08 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Oh, I don't think Taylor will lose THIS year. In fact, I see putting this, and a few other, races as "toss-ups" means Cook's Political Report is slanting "D" this year, just like Sabato.
They seem to call "toss-up" on a lot of districts which have been dependably Republican, with undamaged incumbents, and no polls to show strength on the part of the challenger. This seems to me to be more of a Democratic fantasy than an "objective" analysis.
5. Posted by Jim Addison | September 2, 2006 4:08 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 2, 2006 04:08