Expanding on the post below, the numbers in the New Jersey Senate poll are extremely interesting. But for the Iraq War, Tom Kean Jr. would be leading by 11 points. In New Jersey, supposedly one of the bluest of blue states.
In any event though, reality being what it is, Kean only leads by a few points. However, that is excellent news given the onslaught by Democrats against the State Senator and his father the former Governor in recent weeks.
Combined with the poll this morning in Maryland showing the Republican Senate candidate there in a virtual dead heat with either Democratic candidate, it provides a boost for Republican Senate candidates everywhere.
Why?
Republicans have vulnerable seats in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri, and Ohio. Seats in Tennessee, Arizona, and Virginia may be vulneable but right now will stay in GOP hands. Democrats need to win all five vulnerable seats and one of the other three to take control of the Senate, assuming that Joe Lieberman caucuses with them after winning re-election (he may not, given the attitude among Democrats toward their erstwhile Vice Presidential candidate.)
If any one of the following Republicans win (Michael Steele, Tom Kean, Jr., Michael Bouchard, Mike McGavick, or Mark Kennedy), it would make the Democratic task of retaking the Senate virtually impossible.
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2006 Senate Race
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Good analysis, Alex. I had... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | August 31, 2006 1:07 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Good analysis, Alex. I hadn't refreshed my page before posting some remarks on these races in the comments to the post below.
A rundown of how I see the Senate races:
VA - Allen: Safe, despite his gaffe earlier. He has a 10-1 money advantage and has won statewide twice before. His opponent is not a good candidate. If Webb wins this one, look for an absolute rout of Republicans on Election Night, and I don't believe that will happen.
TN - open Frist seat: Safe. Democratic challenger Harold Ford, Jr. is one of the most sensible Democrats in the country, for whatever that's worth. But he is a black man running in Tennessee, with several family members who have been exposed as corrupt. Ford himself has no blemishes on his record, but his family dooms him.
MT - Burns: Despite his own problems, Burns wins in the end by turning the spotlight on Jon Tester, who is a complete moonbat moron.
MO - Talent: Holds by a whisker, the incumbent's edge.
OH - DeWine: His biggest problem is the taint of Taft, who is hurting Republicans up and down the ticket this year, and no wonder. He's no great campaigner, either, but his opponent is another extreme leftist in the Democratic Party. If he can bring Brown's voting record to the fore, he can survive.
RI - Chaffee: If he survives the primary, he will win. If he loses, the seat goes to the Democrats.
PA - Santorum: I've never written him off and always believed he will win in the end. He's used to tight races, and is a polished campaigner. Casey, Jr. is an empty suit, a pawn being pushed ahead by handlers who hasn't ever bothered to show up to do the jobs he did get.
AZ - Kyl: If we have to worry about him, it will be a long night. I think he wins.
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Now, the Democratic seats: We're definitely behind in MN, MI, WA, and MD, although closing somewhat in the last three. NJ is a toss-up. All five are possible pick-ups, though.
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For the Democrats to take over the Senate, they would need to sweep the five "at-risk" seats of PA, OH, RI, MO, and MT PLUS one other seat like TN, VA, or AZ, while holding ALL FIVE of their own seats at (admittedly less) risk.
That amounts to running the table, a landslide victory. Democrats have offered no coherent alternative policies at all, so they are relying on generalized voter dissatisfaction to carry the day.
It's hard to beat something with nothing.
1. Posted by Jim Addison | August 31, 2006 1:07 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 31, 2006 01:07