Alexander McClure reported on the latest Quinnipiac poll showing Lieberman with a strong lead in his independent bid for reelection to the US Senate yesterday. Now Associated Press political writer Susan Haigh looks at the same poll:
• In early June, Lieberman was at 56 percent, Lamont at 18 percent and Republican Alan Schlesinger trailed far behind at 8 percent.
• By mid-July, Lieberman was at 51 percent, Lamont at 27 percent and Schlesinger at 9 percent.• Now, the latest poll shows Lieberman at 49 percent, Lamont at 38 percent and Schlesinger at 4 percent.
But Poll Director Douglas Schwartz stresses that those numbers only scratch the surface of how voters really feel about this race.
One potentially troublesome indicator for Lamont lies in voters' opinions of the candidates: Only 23 percent in the new survey had a favorable opinion of Lamont, while 28 percent had an unfavorable opinion and the rest were mixed. Meanwhile, 43 percent viewed Lieberman favorably and 28 percent viewed him unfavorably, with the rest mixed.
"Lamont needs to be concerned because he has actually negative favorability right now statewide," said Quinnipiac Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. "He's popular among Democrats, but he's not doing well among Republicans and independents."
Read the rest at link above.
Alert readers will note that Haigh's numbers differ from McClure's, although they analyze the very same poll. Both are correct. Haigh refers to the figures for all "registered voters," while McClure considers the results for "likely voters." History shows that the "likely voter" figures are far more accurate than those of all adults or all registered voters because they screen for voting habits.
Why, then, would the AP writer consider only the less accurate numbers?
Well, a cynical observer might note those figures make Lieberman's lead look less commanding, and Lamont a little stronger. The article does point out the big perception problems Lamont has, with his negatives higher than his positives, etc., so we're not going to call "media bias" on this one - yet. We will watch the coverage closely as the race unfolds, though.
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2006 Senate Race, Connecticut, Polls
Comments (2)
When people read about how ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Kimyl Oh! | August 18, 2006 11:06 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
When people read about how much support the RNC and Republicans are giving to Lieberman, he might lose a great deal of support among Democrats and Independents. Joe could still pull it out, but he is triangulated in many ways by the nature of his run.
I think the final numbers will be similar to the primary, as Joe gets GOP support and Lamont peels off more Democrats as Joe gets support from the right. Mid to high forties for both of em.
1. Posted by Kimyl Oh! | August 18, 2006 11:06 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 18, 2006 11:06
2. Posted by hNAV | August 19, 2006 2:19 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
bottom line?
the liberal is really not electable, unless you are in San Francisco, NYC, and a few other exceptions...
note, the folly of Lamont running to be more centrist, after manipulating the extreme left in CONN...
LOL
wonder if KOS blows his lid, having a Candidate act like a 'moderate'...
2. Posted by hNAV | August 19, 2006 2:19 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on August 19, 2006 02:19