In the fight for control of the House, one thing is clear enough: in order to win a majority, Democrats will need to win virtually all of the "toss-up" seats. There are lots of other seats "in play" this year, of course, in the sense that events between now and the election could easily influence the outcome either way.

I've selected a "Baker's Dirty Dozen" seats that are generally rated as too close to call. If the Democrats are to win the House, they will need to run the table on these races, or perhaps lose one or two and make those up elsewhere. Watch these races closely for clues as to how Election Night 2006 will come out. Or you could cheat and just keep coming back to Wizbang! Politics, where we'll be watching them for you.

Readers in or near these districts are encouraged to send us breaking news of the campaigns.

Ohio - 6th CD: This is the only one of these seats now held by the Democrats. Ted Strickland left to run for Governor. Democratic State Sen. Charlie Wilson is a strong campaigner, and might be favored over Republican State Rep. Chuck Blasdel, but Wilson is a controversial figure in his own right. The seat is on the list because it is open and Bush narrowly won it in 2004, and it is an absolute must-hold seat if Democrats' hopes for winning the House are to be kept alive.

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Ohio - 18th CD: Open after incumbent Bob Ney withdrew from the race. Most years, this district wouldn't be on anyone's list of possible Democratic pickups, but Ney's "Abramoff problem" has been the talk of the district and led to his downfall. Democratic nominee Zack Space is new to the bigger stage, but he was almost even with the long-term incumbent in the polls. Republican State Sen. Joy Padgett is taking the GOP flag forward, pending nuisance suits from the Democrats. If this race follows the pattern of California's 50th {Cunningham's old seat}, and corruption charges don't taint the replacement candidate, Republicans will be breathing a sigh of relief. But if Space pulls out a win, Hastert might start packing his personal items in the Speaker's Office.

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Texas - 22nd CD: Tom DeLay's old seat, which will have NO Republican on the ballot after the Democrats' successful suit to prevent a replacement being named. Redistricting has left the seat less strongly Republican than it was - the GOP legislature figured DeLay didn't need much protection at the time - but it is still a solidly conservative seat in the Houston suburbs. Democratic candidate Nick Lampson is a former congressman who was gerrymandered out of his seat, so it's a personal crusade to him, and he will be well-funded by national Democratic Party orgs and individual donors. Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace has filed to run as a write-in candidate. If enough money and organization is applied, he has a real chance, but the race must be regarded as the truest of "toss-ups" at this point: all up in the air.

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Arizona 8th CD: 11-term incumbent Rep. Jim Kolbe is retiring, which wouldn't normally matter in this strong GOP district, but the primary has been very divisive over the hot-button immigration issue. State Rep. Steve Huffman is backed by Kolbe and the US Chamber of Commerce, but favors a balanced approach on the immigration issue, leaving an opening for State Rep. Randolph Graf to drive a wedge with his "enforcement-first and fence" approach. On the Democratic side, State Sen. Gabby Giffords was the strong favorite to win the primary, and leads in fundraising by more than 2-1 over the nearest rival. She was caught puffing her resume in a TV ad by the Arizona Daily Star, so some of the bloom is off of the rose. Like Ney's seat in Ohio, losing this Tuscon area district would greatly complicate GOP hopes of keeping the House.

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Colorado - 7th CD: This one should be a good barometer of how things are going on Election Night. It's a very competitive seat and it's open now, as incumbent Bob Beauprez is running for Governor. He was reelected by double digits last time, but Kerry won the district. Republican Rick O'Donnell had no primary opposition and can count on support from the national GOP - Bush already did a fundraiser for him. Ed Perlmutter won the Democratic primary, and the former State Senator is considered a formidable candidate. Of course, he will get plenty of outside help, too.

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Connecticut 4th CD: Incumbent Chris Shays is one of the best-known RINOs in the House, and has been very popular in his liberal district, BUT he supports the Bush policies on the Iraq War and national security generally, which is not a popular position there. The Democrats have nominated Diane Farrell again - last time she gave Shays the closest race he had ever had, and the big issue was the war. Time for a rematch.

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Pennsylvania 6th CD: One of the major targets for the Democrats, this one is another rematch, with GOP incumbent Jim Gerlach facing Democrat Lois Murphy again, after narrowly beating her in 2004. Murphy is well organized and well-funded. Both sides are pouring resources into this one, naturally. Being in the east, it will be another one to watch for early clues, but a loss here doesn't hurt the Republicans as much as it would the Democrats.

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New York 24th CD: Another open seat, with popular GOP incumbent Boehlert retiring after 24 years in the seat. This is an upstate district, and is expected to be tightly competitive. Both sides have strong candidates. Republican State Sen. Ray Meier is an experienced legislator, while Democratic nominee Mike Arcuri is a popular local prosecutor. Both are well funded. Arcuri has recently run into some potential problems with donations from people associated with an insurance company embroiled in a fraud investigation, including $4000 from two paralegals {can you say "cut-out?"}. Details from the Utica Observer-Dispatch HERE.

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Illinois 6th CD: Another open seat created by the retirement of a longtime GOP incumbent. Henry Hyde has held this seat for more than three decades, but in recent years Democratic registration and results in other races have been steadily improving. Without Hyde's prestige, it is a competitive seat. Republican State Sen. Pete Roskam is taking on disabled Iraq War vet Tammy Duckworth. Expect a tough campaign, with plenty of outside help for both candidates.

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Indiana 8th CD: Incumbent John Hostettler has held this seat for the GOP for six terms, but it has always been a competitive race. This time he is opposed by Evansville Democratic Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. This will be another rough and tumble campaign with plenty of outside help for both.

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Indiana 9th CD: Another rematch race, this time the third for these two candidates. Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel beat Democratic Rep. Baron Hill last time in a tight race. Hill is one of the last of the conservative Democrats, and is well known in the district, of course. Expect another close one here.

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Iowa 1st CD: Again, a long-term incumbent Republican, Rep. Jim Nussle, has retired and left a highly competitive open seat behind him. The GOP rests its hopes on businessman Mike Whalen, while the Democrats put up trial lawyer Bruce Braley. While Nussle held the seat comfortably for years, Kerry won the district decisively in 2004. This one is almost an absolute "must-win" for any Democratic chance of winning the House.

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Minnesota 6th CD: GOP incumbent Mark Kennedy is running for US Senate, so the seat is open. State Sen. Michele Bachman is the Republican hopeful, while the Democrats are putting up Patty Wetterling again, who was beaten rather handily by Kennedy in 2004. She is well-known and well-funded, though, and expected to run a tougher campaign with Kennedy out of the picture.

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Will these be the "lucky thirteen" races for Democrats in the fall? The difficulty in Democrats' chances of winning the House is clear in this scenario: it is possible they could sweep all 13 seats and still not win a House majority. So these races are absolutely critical to control of the House in the next Congress.

We will watch them very closely as the campaigns develope, and invite you to join us.