Top Twelve Senate Races

Pennsylvania-Rick Santorum is certainly the most vulnerable incumbent up for re-election this year. He presently trails Bobby Casey Jr. by single digits in some polls, double digits in others. If Santorum is not to be written off, he has to close to at least a dead heat by Labor Day. Right now, this is Lean Democrat.

Montana-Conrad Burns is probably the second most vulnerable incumbent, but unlike Santorum, this is not even an ideological problem. Montana is one of the most Republican states in the country, but Burns has had some ethical problems, being too close to Jack Abramoff. Burns even has a primary challenger. However, the Democrats have a close and contentious primary too. Toss-Up

Rhode Island-Lincoln Chafee, like Arlen Specter in 2004, probably has more to worry about in his bid to win the Republican nomination than in the general election. He is being challenged by a local GOP mayor, but recent polls show him leading by a wide margin. The Democratic nominee is definitely second-tier. Lean Republican

Ohio-While the media and Democrats (I repeat myself) continue to crow that DeWine is vulnerable, polls here show him ahead by double digits. DeWine certainly has not done much to make conservatives happy with him, but they should rally around him at the prospect of the ultra-liberal Democratic Congressman challenging him, Sherrod Brown. Lean Republican

Missouri-Jim Talent won a special election in 2002, and he is not running for a full six year term. Polls here show that the race is extremely close, but Talent is an extremely "talented" politician who already has waged two statewide races. Moreover, the GOP has doing extremely well in the Show-Me-State recently. Lean Republican

Tennessee-This may the race that never was. It seems that most of the excitement will be in the Republican primary, with two former Congressmen and a popular mayor battling for the nomination. The Democrats do not have a primary, but their nominee, Harold Ford, is starting out at a severe disadvantage in this increasingly Republican state. Polls show that any of hte Republican nominees would hold this seat. Likely Republican

New Jersey-Republicans have not had much luck in New Jersey recently. They lost a close race for the Senate in 2000, and then have had three successive disasters in 2001, 2002, and 2005. However, recent polls show State Senator Tom Kean leading the appointed Democratic Senator Robert Menendez. Obviously, it will not be easy for Kean to overcome the Democratic bias in this state, but this is easily the best GOP chance for capturing a Democratic seat. Toss-up

Minnesota-Congressman Mark Kennedy was trailing, but a recent Rasmussen poll had him in a dead heat with the Democratic nominee. The moderate Kennedy is an excellent fit for Minnesota, which was once heavily Democratic, but is being much more of a toss-up. The Democratic nominee Amy Klobuchar is extremely liberal, and the only advantage she may have is the national political environment. Toss-up

Maryland-The Republican nominee is Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. While he led in the beginning of the year, he has since fallen behind in the polls. The Democrats have a contentious primary between a Democratic congressman Benjamin Cardin and former Congressman Kwesi Mfume. If Mfume is the Democratic nominee, then Steele has a chance. If it is Cardin, then it is more likely than not the Democrats hold this. Lean Democratic

Washington-Two polls here have shown the GOP nominee, Mike McGavick closing to single digits and trailing Maria Cantwell by only a few points. However, this is Washington, where elections often depend on the size of the Democratic majority in King County. McGavick has to make sure he does not come a few thousand votes short, lest the original settlers to Washington decide to come out to the polls to vote. Lean Democratic

Michigan-Mike Bouchard presently trails by double digits, but he comes from Oakland County, one of the most populous in Michigan. Moreover, he may have the advantage of running with Dick DeVos who is leading Jennifer Granholm in the gubernatorial race. Debbie Stabenow, the incumbent, is running under 50%. Things may have gotten easier when one of the Republican candidates fell short of getting enough signatures, but Bouchard still faces a primary. Lean Democratic

Nebraska-Ben Nelson is a Democrat, but he is one of those rare birds who actually vote conservative from time to time. It won't be easy to defeat him, especially since former Governor Johanns is otherwise occupied in Washington. However, the Republicans have nominated a strong candidate, wealthy businessman Peter Ricketts. Even if Ricketts falls short, it isn't necessarily a bad thing. Perhaps he can take on Democratic incumbent Chuck Hagel. Likely Democratic.